Office space

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colonel_truman
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Re: Office space

Post by colonel_truman »

therealevan wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2020 4:19 am Colonel_truman,

I just had a chance to read your reports.... what a thorough and excellently written analysis of your game so far. Are you still actively playing this save by chance? I look forward to further updates.


Evan
Thank you Evan.
I´m very irregular at playing. This coming March I´ll try to find time to play some more. I´ll try to post something about the city budgets this week and the city panoramas. Then I´ll have to meet with the board to discuss strategy before we go any further.
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Re: Office space

Post by colonel_truman »

CITIES

Our political party won the elections in every city, so we´ll keep managing the city budgets.
To that purpose we upgraded the ledger that we provided in our 2016 report, to project our plans for the country into the future.

We had two choices going forward: expand the budgets or contract them. We decided to go with the latter by lowering taxes, cutting services and privatizing assets. Here are our thoughts about the matter.
1- EXPAND THE BUDGET.
We could raise taxes to 20-25-30 for this period and maybe become tax addicted in the future as we keep expanding govt. spending from one year to the next.
By doing so we believe we might begin tightening the economy: by lowering discretionary consumption, by discouraging private investment and by depriving the small guy of their means to save and "invest".
That trend of higher taxation could mean a higher but unsustainable standard of living in the long term (higher govt. spending); lower overall corporate profits resulting in lower market valuations; higher unemployment (except for the government sector) and a lower inflation rate. We could end up tanking the economy.
If our aim would be to become the dominant corporation then this path would serve our purpose: lower stock valuations and a lower inflation "tax" on our future cash hoard to acquire our "competitors", we´d be paving the way to the formation of an unproductive, but profitable, cartel. Our shareholders would be pleased.

On the other hand that trend could be averted by using the tax money by building both extra infrastructures (transportation; communications; and a long etc) and a higher level of education for our citizens (human infrastructure?).
Both aspects would boost the productivity of the nation: lowering costs and prices and making our products more alluring, at home and abroad; encouraging the creation of new businesses and in the process both raising salaries and creating high paying jobs; and so expanding the tax pie as we move along.

Obviously there is no slider for infrastructure spending nor any way to measure or affect productivity except by the competitiveness ratings by product category, and these are achieved by just a small, well invested sum each year in university research. Neither we have seen health care levels to affect productivity, nor the rule of law through municipal couthouses nor the emergency services to provide any benefit therein; etc. So we decided for:

2- CONTRACT THE BUDGET.
We will aim at:
16%-18% income tax to have the jobs&income category at 100. By taxing less we don´t think the game will recognize any special benefit. That´s our anchor.
20% VAT to discourage discretionary consumption and incentivize savings and "investment" by the small guy (be it in new ventures by starting their own, or existing ones by becoming shareholders?).
20% corporate tax, as the game considers that level "neutral" and because the budgets would become too stretched by lowering it further.

With this level of taxation we must cut some more to balance the budgets, so we´ll get rid of all unemployment benefits (anyway, we have in theory full employment across the nation at 2%, and are paying almost 1 billion$ every year on that!)
Also we will start selling apartment blocks to Tomahawk Corp. to raise some cash in Funk and Lynden, this time. We´ll use that money to increase the number of education facilities there as we deem appropiate.
City tax-feb2020.png
City tax-feb2020.png (61.09 KiB) Viewed 8224 times
As you can see in the ledger we have CURRENT tax levels, RATE B ("expand the budget"), RATE C ("contract the budget") and a new rate D (our choice). We kept the tax rates in B&C unchanged but substracted there land sales to see if the tax level was sufficient for equilibrium without the income from the land sales.
Added current cash levels.
Added a 10-year-average of past land sales in rate D as a more reasonable level to measure future cash flows than current land sales (in Glen Fork we opted for current land sales as the 10-Y-average was too high).
The light blue indicates where we cut spending or plan to privatize. Grey means inputs in the excel, and dark blue the most relevant data.
As you can see all cities have cash reserves to withstand 4-5 years of "projected" deficits (when it applies).
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Re: Office space

Post by colonel_truman »

CITY VIEWS.

Presented without comment.
a-Funk-feb2020.png
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b-Lynden-cbd-feb2020.png
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b-Lynden-Eastd-feb2020.png
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c-Lambs Grove-Eastd-feb2020.png
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d-Glen Fork-Eastd-feb2020.png
d-Glen Fork-Eastd-feb2020.png (1011.95 KiB) Viewed 8221 times
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colonel_truman
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Re: Office space

Post by colonel_truman »

Hello again!

As I´ve been sick for the past month I haven´t been able to post what was promised, so give me a few days to get back to the scenario... I hope I´ll find some strenght soon, but don´t push too hard ;)

But before that I´d like to put the game I´ve been playing in perspective to present times, as was my intention somewhere down the line, as now in 2020 a few pieces of which I´m aware are starting (once again) to fall into place in the global arena.

As you, dear readers, might know by now, as you have reached so far, and congratulations by the way, we have been playing of late the role of a kind of supra-entity incarnated in a big corporation, Tomahawk Corp, that has been both backed by big assets (real estate) and funded by Sylvania´s commercial bank.
Our aim has been to improve Sylvania´s economy, by means of monetizing our assets, to set up successful new ventures. We have tried to hire the best talents available, our captains of industry, to manage these in order to create jobs through competition with the previous industrial establishment, and prevent any poisonous monopolies, which are good for profits, bad for the economy. If any monopolies will arise (by our own hand) in the future, these will happen to be short-lived as we´ll just aim to re-structure failing businesses.
Our interest lay in a strong economy. We will use a crisis to buy assets on the cheap, right?

We have been using the commercial bank to strenghten the economy: We monetize our R.E. and hand the cash to real producers, in all effects turning ourselves into a financial player...

-----------

Now, take a look at where money comes from (in the real world) in this video. It makes reference to Richard Werner´s work (that sharp and articulate German gentleman) and I encourage you select few to follow through at your own discretion.
As how can people live all around in such darkness before such an important matter boggles my mind.
So for you, select few, who own the spark of the divine in your soul... here´s a well deserved message.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_dBKAWHHQI

Ok, assuming you already watched the stuff, so what happened in 2008? The "too big to fail" banks wanted government money and they threatened catastrophe to all in case it wasn´t handed out. Will you lend to productive business as it´s your "mandate"? govt. asked (as they have money minting "monetization" privileges, they are not so private after all, are they?)
Absolutely, they replied. And then they "parked" it (new financial "tool") at the "Federal" "Reserve" to get free interest on it, instead. Free money, it does exist it seems.
The result: destruction of productive businesses, the pillar of our material existence.
Now, in 2019-2020 the armageddon card, remember, was spent in 2008. They are in trouble back again so what could they possibly do?
Well, create havoc so the pain "down here" is real, this time? I wonder.

So, with the cash flowing in, as it´s already happening, will they jump-start the economy this time? Before buying assets on the cheap? After? At all?

Before a revolution takes away their powers of monetization (once again), turning it back (once again) to We, the People?

I hope you find these questions as interesting as I do. I have no answer. Feel free to add your own thoughts, but I think we are watching an old story unfold (once again).
So long!
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Re: Office space

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The board has finally decided for these measures to be carried forward within the next 2-3 years:

1- Use the Gazette to purchase the government media in Lambs Grove, both the radio station and the newspaper, for 350 mm$ total, using cash reserves.
They have low incomes and are low priced, comparatively speaking. We´ll help the city budget that way so Tomahawk can buy back its previous land purchase "subsidies" there.
There will be two private media firms left operating in that city after the acquisitions, with a very small market share both.

2- We´ll finally purchase ALL government apartments in all cities for 3 billion$, using our revolving credit facility. The cost is estimated at 147 apartments at 20mm$ each average. Their income generated yearly can be seen in the 2020 city budget chart provided before, around 225mm$. Interest payments will be 180mm$ so we´ll still be making a profit. Cities will use the cash to set up new education facilities (esp. new high schools and universities) with the hope that the industrial productivity will increase in the future.

3- We have updated the Industry competitiveness chart to see where we´ll focus the public research budgets. All product categories are covered in one city or another, but we need to spend, and we believe this is a good way to do so. We marked green the areas to cover in the next years.
competitiveness-feb2020.png
competitiveness-feb2020.png (20.04 KiB) Viewed 7785 times
4- We´ll keep building new offices and apartments if demand for these increase, as we believe will be the case.

Remember we aim at just shuffling ownership with our acquisitions so we won´t be creating any economic benefits. We´ll delegate that role to the cities, this time, as we think the amount of cash provided will do for the time being.

4- We´ll use Tomahawk´s income of 1,5 billion$/year to reduce the principal of the 3 billion$ from the credit facility, each month and we´ll keep an eye on the stock market for cheap purchases. That will require between 2-3 years. After that we´ll pause and evaluate the situation again, without reporting back to you.

We´ll also monitor the evolution of our new budget policies in all cities and see the impact these will have in terms of GDP and overall economic activity, together with the state of the consumer industries yearly, both in terms of corporate market share and profits, and new technologies implemented.

Finally, we´ll report back to you in 2025 after the mayoral elections end.
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Re: Office space

Post by colonel_truman »

FEB 2020 - FEB 2025

Since 2020 inflation has remained quite stable at around 4,5%.
We started this period by "monetizing" 2 billion$ of our assets to purchase all government apartments at once, and we spent the first 2-3 years of our income to return our liabilities back to zero.
We also looked for opportunities in the public marketplace and bought shares in some of our "competitor´s" stock.
After that we followed our plan of creating new business ventures by investing 3 billion$ of our income in 6 new corporations, plus we built new apartments and office buildings after demand started growing (again)...
As the 6 new ventures are still in their infancy we will not report about them this time.

------------

We have grown our balance sheet by 50% and our operating income by 40% since 2020.
Balance sheet-feb2025.png
Balance sheet-feb2025.png (532.93 KiB) Viewed 6980 times
Income Statement-feb2025.png
Income Statement-feb2025.png (482.11 KiB) Viewed 6980 times
Tomahawk´s stock price has remained flat despite the above, so we are guessing it will soon play catch-up.
Stock Market-feb2025.png
Stock Market-feb2025.png (501.59 KiB) Viewed 6980 times
Here we can see a few of our acquisitions:
Mankind, the toy manufacturer, started repurchasing its own stock so we grew our ownership to 75% without intervention. As we expected form our previous analysis of the toy market, the price moved up quite a bit (almost 50%) reflecting the projected increase in sales.
We can also see we shuffled our ownership between the investment corporations (3B and Samurai). We hold a substantial amount of cash in both stocks (2,5 billion$). As both have a 5% ownership in Tomahawk we are indirectly speculating in the future of our own corporation, so we plan to increase our ownership further right away, as our stock looks rather undervalued at this moment.
We have also acquired two beverage companies whose stock was priced below book but with positive cash flows (RIS, ULT).
Stock Market2-feb2025.png
Stock Market2-feb2025.png (512.95 KiB) Viewed 6980 times
We have also updated Tomahawk´s charts provided in 2020.
a.png
a.png (247.47 KiB) Viewed 6980 times
b.png
b.png (446.43 KiB) Viewed 6980 times
We have updated our Stock Market Tryptich to (try to) make it look sharper. We have also included a few extra metrics that we thought would be useful to better understand both the evolution of the corporate sector, and its current state overall. I´ll provide a few comments about that next time.
Included in the chart are: PAST period, CHANGE between periods, revenues(!), and OTHER metrics (ad expenses, share issuance-repurchase, etc).
The image is large so I don´t know how it will look here. Testing.
Corporate Market-gif-2025.gif
Corporate Market-gif-2025.gif (336.6 KiB) Viewed 6980 times
As you can see we have also included a "business sector" cell to each player, and joined corporations in groups, to be able to add a "business sector comparison" chart in another report, easily, taking advantadge of the gathering of all the data. This way we´ll have an easy-to-compile, easy-to-read "report" to try forecast trends.
I.E:
Sector Comp-Heath-2025.jpg
Sector Comp-Heath-2025.jpg (222.97 KiB) Viewed 6980 times
Finally, I provide the excel file in case any of you want to check it, add, substract or better it in any way you please.
In case you do, let me know so I can use that too.
CORPORATE-2025.zip
(55.89 KiB) Downloaded 149 times
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David
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Re: Office space

Post by David »

Hi colonel_truman,

Thanks for the update for this long-running series.

I downloaded your Excel file. If the dev team is going to implement the "Export Data to CVS" function for the Banking DLC (http://www.capitalism2.com/forum/viewto ... =52&t=7276), do you think the types of data that it exports should follow your Excel file?
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Re: Office space

Post by colonel_truman »

David wrote: Mon May 11, 2020 4:29 am Hi colonel_truman,

Thanks for the update for this long-running series.

I downloaded your Excel file. If the dev team is going to implement the "Export Data to CVS" function for the Banking DLC (http://www.capitalism2.com/forum/viewto ... =52&t=7276), do you think the types of data that it exports should follow your Excel file?
Hello David. The data compiled is the most relevant that I find for corporations and to study their progress at present. It would be good to have more groups of data, like one for the consumer market and another for the cities, at least. I haven´t yet explored the digital age dlc nor the banking dlc, but I´m sure these will require new extra fields.
Maybe you noticed but I constantly add stuff here and there as it comes to mind: it´s an open process and probably some more ideas will pop up in the future. It´d be good to know the opinion of the community.
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Re: Office space

Post by colonel_truman »

CORPORATE ENVIRONMENT.

So, let´s provide a few observations about Sylvania´s corporate environment:

Dominance 2, (excluding Tomahawk Corp.) shows a few statistics comparing the group controlled by us (A) vs the group not under our control (B):

To give an idea about SALES EFFICIENCY, we can see that our A "team" generates 93% of total corporate profits, controlling just 47% of the total equity.
Related to efficiency, we have included operating costs (as a % of revenues) in the far right for each corporation. Any number above 100% means the corporation cannot cover their operating costs with their income (a.k.a is losing money).
If we look for sectors with the lower costs to operate, we see both R.E. and Media at the top of the list. In this case we assume that´s so because they have virtually no competition, so they can charge a higher price for their services and have not any second thoughts about it.
Other business sectors are all above the 50% threshold, being our cosmetics subsidiary(!) (CHAN) the most efficient, making almost 2$ for each 1$ "invested" (53%), followed by SKY (61%).
That could mean a monopoly, even if disguised, is in place.

In terms of MARKET SHARE, we could look at revenues (gross earnings) to see where the chips are falling: it´s A 63% vs B 37%.
Altough local producers still control a good chunk of the consumer market, we can conclude that our team is doing quite well in terms of GROWTH. Looking at gross numbers, we increased revenues by 1 billion$ between 2020-2025 while our opponents did by a mere 180mm$, or a 5:1 or better growth ratio between them.
Looking closer we can see that most of our growth came from both our newspaper publisher and our smartphones subsidiary (SKY).

By looking at this data segments we could argue to make a case for future new ventures: high efficiency and high growth possibly means a new frontier is being opened, so we could always drive a wedge there if we move fast and can find a good and motivated manager.

Next, we included a % of revenues spent in marketing, for each corporation.
We can see that many use less than 6% of their gross income to, we guess, MAINTAIN their brand level. These would be corporations with a mature brand that are not suffering from new upgrades to their line of consumer products nor from careless diversification.
Any number above 6%, we´re guessing, speaks volumes about corporations finding obstacles pushing their products to market.
In extreme cases the expenses can go quite high (FNK 35%, STAK 41%) and we assume these players are diversifying their product lines with the wrong marketing strategy (forced mergers & corporate strategy?). We believe the only solution there would be to reset brand or risk bankrupcy.
In any case we detect a few corporations whose marketing expenses are currently low in terms of revenues (below 6%) and also have been low in absolute terms (CHAN, FRUT, FUS), probably meaning lack of appeal in products of the competition, both from other corporate players and also locally produced. Again that could give us clues about "new frontiers" for new ventures.

Another aspect included is share issuance/repurchase:
We mentioned before about our now fully incorporated subsidiary MNK (toy) repurchasing their own shares (using 218mm$ cash).
On the other side of the bridge we find that there has been a lot of reaching out to private investors for funds: two blatant examples that raised 3,2 billion$ that way are GL and SL.
As the result has been a mere increase in equity and not in earnings nor revenues, we guess they used the cash to set up resource firms. Lucky us, we haven´t had a sizable interest in any of them... so far.

CITIES.

Here first, as stated before, we sold all govt. apartment buildings to Tomahawk, and then a few public media companies to our newspaper, all at reasonable prices. By the way, we noticed (now) that these media firms sold were paid in full, but only 1/3 of the cash found its way to the city coffers...
With the cash we built a few new schools and other education facilities.
Then we lowered the tax rates as planned and set the unemployment benefits to zero.

Well, that last backfired and proved to be horrible for our R.E. business, as many people emigrated.
We were then forced to reverse policy two years later and allocated a 40% benefit as the minimum required to prevent the drain.

Cities now have to spend an extra billion$ more each year than previously planned, half of it in Lambs Grove because of growing levels of unemployment.
That, plus the (over)expansion in education facilities forced us to gradually raise income taxes to 22%, thwarting our previous plans for a high income&jobs rating.
BUDGETS then remained quite stretched for the most part of 2020-2025: As we didn´t want to deviate too far from our original intention, taxes were set to break even. As that didn´t prove to be enough we were finally forced to issue one 200mm$ bond in most cities, plus Tomahawk had to intervene by buying land.

UNEMPLOYMENT: has remained stable at the minimum 2% in all cities except in Lambs Grove, the biggest, and once richest, city, where unemployment reached at one point 4,5%.
At that time we thought a good temporary solution would be to try to put a lid on the opening of new factories in Funk (the "industrial" city) and also stave off there a runaway budget, by raising corporate taxes to 25% and so divert some factories to Lambs Grove.
In 2025 unemployment in Lambs Grove, we believe, has changed trend and now stands at around 3,5% but we cannot make sure yet that our new tax policy in Funk was the cause or even if unemployment will keep rising from now on.

PLANS: Our objective is to have a 100 level in income&jobs. When that category improves, as people get higher salaries and are fully employed, we could raise income taxes further keeping the 100 level. We assume 100 means people have enough income to buy all the stuff they care for, and can put aside some cash for a rainy day.
We believe we are doing a good job on the corporate side, but probably we could help local businesses to create some extra high paid jobs: We knew all along about the GLOBAL competitiveness rating, but we haven´t been paying too much attention to it, so we have updated the city competitiveness chart to reflect global levels so we can direct our universities to fill the gaps as follows:
City Competitiveness-2025.png
City Competitiveness-2025.png (26.71 KiB) Viewed 6671 times
We´ll increase research in the categories below 60 and stop research in those with higher levels of global competition (esp. above 100).
We´ll make Lambs Grove invest in the lower end of the range and see if locals can offer the needed jobs.
That way the city budget will become less strained. In the meantime we´ll have to raise both income taxes (25%) and corporate taxes (23%) there, as shown in the chart:
City budget&projection-2025.png
City budget&projection-2025.png (61.72 KiB) Viewed 6671 times
We have changed the average of land sales to include the last 20 years of data so it becomes more reliable.
We´ll lower taxes in both Lynden and Glen Fork and will keep the 25% corporate tax in Funk.

NATION:

We´ll now offer two charts about Sylvania´s GDP component evolution before we start playing the next period, with some brief comments:

As you can see there´s been a big drop in the growth of consumer spending thanks to our unemployment benefit policy of no-benefits.
GDP components-2025.gif
GDP components-2025.gif (31.99 KiB) Viewed 6671 times
In the next chart you can see that private investment has kept increasing side by side a decrease in the number of exports, meaning a deterioration in the quality or appeal of the Sylvania brand abroad. We hope our new university research focus will revert that in the immediate future and we´ll see exports picking up again.
Inv&exports-2025.gif
Inv&exports-2025.gif (26.57 KiB) Viewed 6671 times
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Re: Office space

Post by colonel_truman »

FEBRUARY 2025 - FEBRUARY 2030

Two features of this period have been:

1- Since 2020 we created 12 new ventures, and started selling parts, or in some cases all, of our old ones.
2- In 2027 we built a new city: Oakland.

(#12) NEW VENTURES:
1- The set up cost has been 6 billion$.
2- Have combined yearly revenues of 600mm$ and earnings of -270mm$ at present.
3- Our plan is to use them to COMPETE with the rest of corporations for the reasons we have been talking about in previous posts. We´ll introduce them briefly in a future post.

(#18) OLD VENTURES (included Funk Apt. Holdings):
1- We IPOed all of them except Rock Smelters Ltd.
2- We sold our entire stock in some (the worst performers).
3- We sold part of our claims in others, to the point of losing control over some of them.
4- We purchased the issued stock in the best performers, after the IPO.

We know there are three ways to increase the overall liquidity in the game:
One of them is to do an IPO of a private corporation, drawing in the invisible public shareholder.
Another is, apart from increasing the consumer base, increase the appeal and price of the consumer products.
The third is to draw in the invisible creditor.

NEW CITY:

1- In 2027 we had so much capital at our disposal from the sales of stock that we decided to create a new "investment vehicle" (aka. a new city) and swap cash for land.
2- We purchased each and all of the land plots there for 6-8 billion$, and plan to sell them piecemeal back to the city, leaving always some 2x2 or 3x3 areas available to corporations to set up retail stores (We miss a click-drag feature to purchase land in bulk). We plan to develop the city.
3- As GDP in the new city grows from very low levels, the land price always starts very cheap but increases very fast.
4- After just three years the effect of the swap has been very positive on our balance sheet. That way we can reach out for extra new bank credit if we need to.
5- The counterparty will be the city´s budget first, then the city´s creditors.

FINANCES:

Inflation remains at about 5%, and real rates at about 4,5%.

At that price it makes sense to use the bank if we plan to develop new R.E. areas in existing cities, but not to buy land, be it in the outskirts or downtown.
Right now the demand for R.E. isn´t growing fast enough to require new credit.
Balance sheet-feb2030.gif
Balance sheet-feb2030.gif (354.56 KiB) Viewed 6071 times
Our Balance Sheet increased 80% since 2025, from 54 billion$ to 97,5 billion$.
23 billion$ derived from the increase in price of our land assets, plus new purchases.
19 billion$ derived from the increase in price of our ownership in performing businesses.
Income Statement-feb2030.gif
Income Statement-feb2030.gif (366.16 KiB) Viewed 6071 times
Income is hovering between 1,9 and 2,4 billion$/year. The causes for the fluctuation, we believe, are:
1- Tech sales.
2- New R.E. often operating at a loss for a few years, esp. if the supply is much higher that the demand.
Stock Market-feb2030.gif
Stock Market-feb2030.gif (379.4 KiB) Viewed 6071 times
As predicted, the price of our stock increased exponentially during the period.
If it could go from here to the standard 1,4 price to assets that would mean a 45k$/share price.

We mentioned earlier that we´d use the two investment corporations as proxies to invest in our own stock. So, let´s throw in some numbers:
3B and SAM, have combined 7,8 billion$ of equity in stocks and combined 10% ownership in Tomahawk. Their combined market cap is 14,5 billion$, from 8,3 billion in 2025 (1,8 price to assets).
Our claims on them are worth 7,4 billion$. We own 88% (from 40% in 2025) of 3B shares and 16% (from 20% in 2025) of SAM shares.
We´ll focus on SAM to see if the price becomes cheaper and buy in small additions while keeping an eye at our own valuation.

Also notice a few investors already cashed in and we have 6,5% of the stock "floating" in the hands of public shareholders.
Stock Market2-feb2030.gif
Stock Market2-feb2030.gif (371.58 KiB) Viewed 6071 times
We decided to show here our media monopoly, together with a few of our old subsidiaries, most appearing in the exchange with very nice P/E valuations.
We have been mostly shedding stocks this time. The only acquisitions worth mentioning are an extra 10% in Mankind (toy) and an extra 48% in Three Brothers (investment).
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